OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035: Global Agriculture Expected to Grow 13% Despite Climate and Geopolitical Challenges

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035: Global Agriculture, Food Markets and Climate Outlook. Explore the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, highlighting global agricultural production, food security, climate change, trade, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and long-term market projections.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 presents one of the most comprehensive assessments of the future of global agriculture, food production, agricultural trade, and aquatic food markets over the next decade. Jointly prepared by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the report provides policymakers, researchers, businesses, and development organizations with evidence-based projections covering global, regional, and national agricultural trends.

According to the report, global agricultural production is expected to increase by 13% by 2035, primarily through productivity improvements rather than significant expansion of farmland. While agriculture continues to face pressures from climate change, geopolitical instability, rising production costs, and market uncertainty, technological innovation and improved farming practices are expected to support sustainable growth across much of the world.

About the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is an annual flagship publication that analyzes medium-term prospects for agricultural commodities, fisheries, aquaculture, trade, consumption, prices, and food security. The 2026-2035 edition evaluates expected developments over the coming decade while also considering emerging risks affecting global food systems.

This edition incorporates data available through 2025 while also assessing the potential impacts of disruptions linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict, including higher fertilizer costs, increased energy prices, and slower economic growth.

The report emphasizes that maintaining resilient agricultural systems will require continued international cooperation, investment in productivity, and well-functioning global trade.

Global Agricultural Production Projected to Increase by 13%

One of the report’s central findings is that worldwide agricultural production is projected to expand by approximately 13% between 2026 and 2035.

Unlike previous decades where production growth relied heavily on expanding cultivated land, future growth is expected to come primarily from:

Higher agricultural productivity.
Improved farming efficiency.
Technological innovation.
Better crop yields.
Sustainable intensification.

Most production growth is forecast to occur in:

Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America

These regions are expected to play an increasingly important role in feeding a growing global population.

Productivity Will Drive Future Growth

The Outlook highlights productivity as the primary driver of agricultural expansion.

Improvements are expected through:

Mechanization.
Improved crop varieties.
Better livestock management.
Enhanced irrigation systems.
Modern farming technologies.
Improved farm management practices.

These gains are projected to increase global agricultural output while reducing the need for extensive land expansion.

Agricultural Incomes Expected to Improve

Thanks to productivity gains, average global agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by approximately 9% by 2035.

Global agricultural labor productivity is expected to reach roughly USD 3,800 per worker, although substantial regional differences remain.

High-Income Countries

Farm workers in high-income economies already enjoy significantly higher productivity due to:

Advanced mechanization.
Large-scale commercial farming.
Strong infrastructure.
Modern technologies.

These countries are expected to maintain the highest productivity levels globally.

Middle-Income Countries

Many middle-income economies are transitioning toward more commercial agriculture through:

Increased mechanization.
Improved infrastructure.
Greater integration into global value chains.
Adoption of modern production technologies.

These developments are expected to boost rural incomes over the next decade.

Low-Income Countries

The report notes that agricultural workers in many low-income countries, particularly across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, continue facing major structural challenges.

These include:

Small-scale subsistence farming.
Limited access to markets.
Low mechanization.
Heavy reliance on staple crops.
Limited investment.

Without greater investment in productivity and rural employment opportunities, poverty and food insecurity may persist.

Climate Change Remains a Major Challenge

Although agricultural productivity is expected to improve, climate change continues to present significant risks to global food production.

The report projects that direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions will increase by approximately 6.5% over the coming decade.

However, emissions growth is expected to remain considerably lower than overall production growth, indicating gradual improvements in production efficiency.

Most projected emission increases will come from:

Livestock production.
Synthetic fertilizer use.

The report emphasizes the need to accelerate sustainable agricultural practices that increase productivity while reducing environmental impacts.

Fertilizer Disruptions Could Affect Food Production

A supplementary analysis examines the impact of disruptions associated with the 2026 Middle East conflict.

Higher fertilizer prices and reduced fertilizer availability are expected to:

Reduce cereal production.
Affect low-income countries most severely.
Increase food prices.
Lower agricultural incomes.
Reduce food consumption among poorer households.

Higher-income countries are expected to be more resilient due to stronger purchasing power and diversified food systems.

Food Security Challenges Continue

Despite projected production growth, food security remains uneven.

Consumers in lower-middle-income countries are expected to diversify their diets by increasing consumption of:

Meat.
Dairy.
Fish.
Other livestock products.

Meanwhile, low-income countries—especially across sub-Saharan Africa—are likely to continue facing:

Food insecurity.
Limited investment.
High food losses.
Weak supply chains.
Rising vulnerability to climate shocks.

The report stresses that productivity improvements and efficient international trade remain essential for ensuring affordable and nutritious food.

Agricultural Prices Expected to Remain Stable

The Outlook projects that real international agricultural commodity prices will generally remain stable or slightly below current levels over the next decade.

This outlook reflects:

Continued productivity gains.
Stable long-term supply growth.
Normal weather assumptions.
Improved production efficiency.

However, the report cautions that unexpected events—including geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, pandemics, and energy crises—could still trigger temporary price volatility.

Growing Importance of International Agricultural Trade

The report emphasizes that international trade remains critical for balancing global food supply and demand.

Rules-based agricultural trade helps countries:

Reduce food shortages.
Improve food availability.
Stabilize markets.
Support farmer incomes.
Strengthen food security.

For many low-income countries, improving infrastructure, transportation networks, storage facilities, and market access will be essential to fully benefit from international agricultural markets.

Risks Facing Global Agriculture

Although long-term projections are generally positive, several uncertainties remain.

Major risks identified include:

Climate change.
Extreme weather events.
Fertilizer shortages.
Geopolitical conflicts.
Energy price volatility.
Market instability.
Supply chain disruptions.
Income variability among farmers.

The report estimates there remains approximately a 25% probability that agricultural income per worker could fall below current levels by 2035 due to market volatility and external shocks.

Why the OECD-FAO Outlook Matters

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook serves as an important reference for governments, international organizations, researchers, agribusinesses, and development partners. Its long-term projections help inform policies on food security, climate resilience, sustainable agriculture, investment priorities, and international trade.

As global demand for food continues to rise alongside population growth and changing dietary preferences, the report highlights the importance of innovation, sustainable productivity growth, and international cooperation in building resilient food systems.

Final Thoughts

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 paints a cautiously optimistic picture of the future of global agriculture. While agricultural production is expected to grow by 13% over the next decade, significant challenges remain, including climate change, geopolitical instability, rising production costs, and persistent food insecurity in many low-income regions.

The report concludes that increasing productivity, investing in sustainable farming practices, improving agricultural trade, and strengthening resilience will be essential to ensuring global food security while supporting farmer livelihoods and protecting natural resources.

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